05 December 2013

Understanding Syria (Part 2): Intellectual and Political Foundations of 21st Century Jihad


My friend, Bill Polk, a distinguished historian specializing in the Middle East, is busily writing a series of extended essays aimed at increasing our understanding of the conflict in Syria and, by extension, our seemingly perpetual war with the Islamic world.  I posted the first part of this series, collectively entitled Understanding Syria, on 8 November 2013 here. Attached below is the next essay in the series.  More will follow.  
I found this essay to be a particularly powerful argument. Readers of this blog who follow the strategic theories of late Colonel John R. Boyd will find Bill’s analysis of the intellectual/philosophical basis for moral and political cohesion in the first half and the of the strategy for Jihad laid out by Abu Bakr Naji (in the last half of the essay) to be entirely consistent with Boyd’s ideas — from grand strategy to tactics.  The discussion of Jihadist strategy rings lots of Boyd’s bells — particularly those relating to Sun Tzu, Boyd’s critique of Clausewitz’s failure to address the idea of pumping your adversary’s friction to increase his expenditure of effort, his conception of generating non-cooperative centers of gravity, and Boyd’s dissection of insurrection, revolution, and guerrilla war.  
What I find to be particularly disturbing about Bill’s analysis is that the counter strategy being pursued by the United States to counter militant Islam fits Naji’s strategy — to paraphrase Eric Von Manstein’s description of the French strategy in 1940 — like a “hand fits a glove.”  If you doubt this, think about the nature of our strategic “success” in Iraq and Afghanistan -- which is evident only to the field marshals of narrative inside the Hall of Mirrors that is Versailles on the Potomac .  
Readers are free to distribute/post/publish Polk's analysis (with or without this intro).
Chuck Spinney

The Intellectual and Political Foundations of 21st Century Jihad
Sayyid Qutub’s Fundamentalism and Abu Bakr Naji’s Jihadism 
William R. Polk, December 1, 2013
Polk’s introductory note: 

You have received a copy of the first part of my essay, "Understanding Syria." [here] As I wrote it, I found that there were three side issues that needed to be ventilated but which were not part of the main text.  They are 1) the interpretation of Islam that motivates the Jihadis,  particularly those now active in Syria but also others in Afghanistan, Chechnya, the Philippines, Mali and elsewhere; 2) the issue of chemical weapons as a component of WMD (weapons of mass destruction); and 3) the international and American law on forcible intervention abroad.  I attach below the first, the intellectual and politico-military basis of Jihad.  

The Arabic word used for Fundamentalist – now usually thought of as revolution-friendly -- Islam is salafiyah. Even native Arabic speakers usually translate it as “reactionary.”  But the concept is far more complex.  The word salafi in classical Arabic means a person who stands both in the rearguard and in the vanguard -- Arabic delights in such contrasts.  The logic of the apparent paradox was brought out by the teachings of jurisconsults from the beginning of the “impact of the West.”  In the Eighteenth century they began to search for means to protect their civilization.   Some argued that “real” strength was not gained by copying the practices of the West but had to be derived from fundamentals as laid out in the Quran and elucidated in the practices of the Prophet and his intimate circle (the Hadith).  Weakness, they believed, came from the innovations and perversions that encrusted Islamic thought and Islamic society in the long dark ages of decline of its power and civilization.
I have described elsewhere the movements of “purification” inspired by such men as the Arabian Ahmad ibn Abdul Wahhab, the Algerian/Libyan Muhammad bin Ali al-Sanusi, the Sudanese Muhammad Ahmad al-Mahdi, the Iranian activist Jamal ad-Din al-Afghani and the Egyptian theologian Muhammad Abduh.   In a fundamental aspect, their teachings and movements resembled those set off in northern Europe by Luther and Calvin.  These Christians and Muslims shared a belief in the absolute authority of the unalterable word of God as set out in the original texts.  Their task was to go back to discover the “pure” message and lead their followers to implement it.  However much they differed, both the Muslims and the Protestants were in this sense salafis.  
The original texts, the Old Testament and the Quran, reflected primitive tribal Jewish and Arab societies, and the codes they set forth were severe.  They aimed, in the Old Testament, at preserving and enhancing tribal cohesion and power and, in the Quran, at destroying the vestiges of pagan belief and practice.  Neither early Judaism nor Islam allowed deviation. Both were authoritarian theocracies.  But, over the centuries, both outgrew their original isolation and came to deal with diverse societies and beliefs.  Thus, in practice, both became more ecumenical and put aside or modified many of their original concepts.  In the eyes of some theologians, such modifications amounted to perversions of God’s commandments.  So, throughout history, a few religious scholars have sought to “go back” to the original or “pure” message as their ancestors had received it, as they believed, from God, and as they had enforced it.  These attempts at “return” reached a large body of believers in Europe in the Sixteenth and Seventeenth centuries and in the Middle East in the Nineteenth and Twentieth centuries.  Thus, Old Testament-inspired New England Puritans implemented a draconian, Biblically-based legal code, complete with lashings, burnings and stoning to death for such crimes as adultery, sodomy and blasphemy. Today’s militant Muslim Fundamentalists, similarly, have insisted on a literal interpretation of early Islamic practice.  Indeed, some, like the Taliban,  have also sought to implement anew what were primitive, non-Islamic tribal codes (Pashtu: ravaj) or to insist, like several African societies, on implementing tribal customs even when they were not sanctioned by Islamic law (the Shariah).  
The ancestors of vast majority of today’s Christians, Jews and Muslims eventually relaxed.  In the aftermath of the puritan movements, subsequent generations turned away from what their fathers and grandfathers had sought to impose.  In effect, they found other, less draconian ways to accomplish their social and cultural objectives.   Others held firm.  So among some Christian sects – Old Believers, Born Again Christians and  many Protestant groups -- “Return” remained a powerful rallying call.   It was even more so for Muslims.  That is because many of their more influential thinkers believed that Islam itself faced an existential challenge in the era of imperialism and colonialism.  For Muslims and other cultural groups in Africa and Asia, the challenge was clear and present.  So I turn to the recent expression of the perceived threat and the ideas among Muslims on how to counter it.
The inspiration for the current version of Islamic salafiyah, and particularly for its militant wing, has come mainly from the Egyptian, partly-American-educated polemicist religiously learned man (Arabic: alim),  Sayyid Qutub.  
Born in an Egyptian village in 1906, Sayyid Qutub got his early education in a primary school in the village and then in a secular school in Cairo, During his twenties and thirties, he wrote a charming memoir on village life and a  not very successful novel but gained a reputation as a literary critic in Egyptian periodicals.  Then, just before the Second World War, he became a minor official in the Egyptian Ministry of Education.  From that post, he received a scholarship to study the American educational system.  He spent two years mainly in Colorado and California, but traveled widely throughout the country.  
Everywhere he went in America, Qutub was appalled by what he saw.  In his eyes, America  was a cesspool of wasteful consumption, exaggerated sex  and crass materialism.  Putting together all he found to detest about America, he placed American civilization in an Arabian context:  it was like the pre-Islamic Arabian period of “ignorance [of God’s way],” the Jahaliyah, which was reformed through the actions of God’s Messenger, Muhammad.  In this way, he categorized the West, not Islam, as the retrograde society. 
Today’s Muslims, he argued, must reinstate the pattern and practices of the order announced by Muhammad in the Seventh Century.  That is,  Muslims must go back to the original pattern, Muhammad’s community, in order to correct today’s excesses.  Only then can they move ahead.  This is the true meaning of salafiyah.
Salafiyah in practice even when not designated by that word has a long history in Islam.  We see it first in the great Eighth-Ninth century Muslim scholar Ahmad bin Hanbal of Baghdad who preached a strict interpretation of the Islamic heritage and sought to prevent innovation (Arabic: bidac).  Running contrary to the trends of his time and criticizing the ruling authorities, he was imprisoned.  That was to become the fate of some of his successors, notably the uncompromising jurist of the Mongol period of invasions, Ibn Taimiyah, who died in prison in Damascus in 1328 AD.  These were the Muslim thinkers who laid the basis for the thought of Sayyid Qutub and today’s Muslim Fundamentalists.
For such men as Hanbal, Taimiyah and Qutub, Islam was a coherent system in which the distinctions we draw between the secular and the religious were themselves travesties.  They viewed life in society in holistic terms with Islam all-encompassing.   
Hanbal and Taimiyah were not so challenged as Qutub by non-Muslim material superiority – “the coming of the West to Asia and Africa -- and so did not need to explain counter demands for innovation.   Qutub did.   And while he did not use these words, I read his works to be motivated by much the same judgment as made by secular nationalists:  Muslim societies are now weak and must find their way to dignity and strength.  He differed from the secularists in believing that they could find it only by returning to first principles whereas the secularists wanted to forget the past and rush into Western-style modernity.  Thus, he believed and many Muslims came to agree with him that ventures into nationalism and socialism, the main currents of thoughts in the 1950s and 1960s, were bound to fail to bring strength and dignity.  They did.  And as we shall see their failure opened the way for the return of Muslim Fundamentalism.
Qutub understood the nationalists’ and Socialists’ Westernizing program and partly, only partly, was prepared to accommodate it.  It was his willingness to work with the nationalists that made him acceptable to the men who led the first of the ‘Arab Spring’ revolts, the 1952 Egyptian coup d’état.  Like the secular nationalists, he admitted that the West was materially strong and agreed that the East must also become materially strong.  Doing so is justified, he pointed out, because God appointed mankind to be his agents to control and exploit the Earth.  But, he argued, Westernized Muslim and secular Arab nationalists had perverted God’s intent.  They  copied the wrong things in Western society.  Instead of simply using the material benefits, they traded for them the essence of their own culture. 
In fact, as he had concluded from his trip to America, the West had little to offer. In its blind race toward materialism, Qutub held, Western society had lost sight of what wellbeing really means.  In his view it is precisely the turn away from spirituality that is the great failing of Western culture.  It is not just that a life without spirituality is barren – which he believed – but that it loses the coherence of the whole Divinely-created and God-mandated system.  The attempt to make up for this loss by adopting such ideologies  as nationalism or such constructs as participatory democracy or Socialism are, he argued, wholly inadequate and, worse, they are a false trail leading away from true religion.  True religious life, a spiritual life, in which God’s commands determine man’s fate, was to be found in a pure form only in early Islam.
As a historian, I have to say that Qutub’s reading of Muhammad’s new order is not quite what I and other scholars believe the years immediately following the establishment of Muhammad’s community to have been.  There was a great deal of dissidence, infighting and greed evident in those years.  Moreover, the time of the four “Rightly Guided Caliphs” lasted only a short time.  However, not only for Qutub but also for virtually all Muslims, those few years were the Golden Age.  It is for this reason that the more extreme of today’s Syrian jihadis speak of their aim as reestablishing a caliphate.  In that age, Fundamentalists believe, “pure” Islam was coherent, all-embracing, just, available and God-given.
From the  short and simple beginning of the Arabian caliphate, Islam spread across the world from Indonesia to Morocco and from sub-Saharan Africa far into Central Asia and grew into a complex civilization that was widely admired and to an extent copied in contemporary Europe.  Its astronomers, physicians, philosophers and other learned men were taken as exemplars throughout the West. 
Even among the illiterate, Islam exercised a powerful appeal.  In part this was because its creed was both attractive and easy to understand:  affirmation of the unity of God (tawhid) and denial of any sharing (shirk) of His majesty; men are not to exploit one another so taking of interest (riba) is forbidden; Muslims are enjoined to help one another so everyone must pay a welfare tax, (zakat); all must abide by the law (shariah) where explicitly laid out in the Quran or exemplified by the actions and sayings (hadith) of the Prophet; Muslims are forbidden to kill one another because they are brothers (ikhwan); they should perform the pilgrimage (hajj) in which as many Muslims as possible from all over the world assemble to express their faith, exemplify their unity and draw strength from one another; and Muslims are commanded to struggle (perform jihad)  in the cause of God (fi sabili’llah) to create the community (ummah) He had ordered.
Since Islam had been announced among a tribal people, and its mores had been influenced by their traditional practices, it easily adapted to other tribal peoples and incorporated their practices.  So, in Afghanistan for example, Muslims lived both by Quranic precepts and Pushtun, Turcoman, Hazara or Tajik customs.  The division between Sunnis and Shiis can be explained in part by the diversity of ethnic cultures. And since conversion was easy, peoples with even more distant ethnic backgrounds eagerly joined its community.  Its emphasis on equality and its lack of racism made Islam attractive, for example, to millions of downtrodden untouchables (dalits) of India for whom Hinduism meant perpetual slavery.  Such conversions also brought ideas and habits alien to the Quran and Hadith into Islamic practice. These “intrusions” were often easily accepted, but from time to time, they and those who followed them were the subject of bitter reproach or violence.  We see this today, as for example in the Syrian Sunni Muslim hostility to the deviant Shia Muslim sect of the Alawis. 
What so infuriated the Orthodox Muslims about the Alawis was that they were “almost Muslims.”   That is, heretics in the Islamic family.  This is or should be understandable to us.  Historically, we see that reaction of religions to heresy has often been more violent than intolerance of a different religion.  That is, I think, because heretics are considered more dangerous than true outsiders.  The Inquisition, as we know, spent most of its energy sniffing out Christian deviation, crypto-Jews, Judaizing Christians and Muslims who only pretended to be Christians (Marranos and Conversos) .  
The modern Syrian experience was more pointed, as I explained in my first essay, because heresy became associated with political power.  No one paid much attention to the Alawis or Christians or other minorities when power was in the hands of Muslims, as it was under the Ottoman empire and under the early Syrian Republican regimes.  But when Hafez al-Assad changed the Constitution to omit the requirement that the president be a Muslim and himself took power, he provoked a civil war.   Muslims were prepared to tolerate deviants but not deviant overlords.
Yet, it has to be said in fairness that over the centuries Islam has been far more tolerant of difference than most other religions.  Non-Muslim and such quasi-Muslim communities as Alawis, Druze, Ismailis and Yazidis were allowed to live by their own rules and under their own authorities.  (Such toleration was rare in contemporary Europe.)  Islamic rules were mandatory, but mandatory only for Muslims.  People who did not profess to be Muslim have generally been accepted as protected neighbors [Arabic: jar].
The Quran is explicit in its description of ours as a pluralistic world.   Despite the widely held idea that Islam was spread by the sword, Qutub rightly points to the Quranic injunction that belief is both personal and free; each man is legally, according to the Shariah, allowed to chose his own way.  Thus, the “People of the Book [the Bible],” Jews and Christians, and by later extension, Hindus, were to be accepted peacefully into the Islamic world as protected communities [Ottoman Turkish: millet].  Only if what an individual or a group does is deemed threatening to Islamic society are restrictions on their actions legal.  Or, in extreme cases, is an attack on them justified. 
This is an issue posed by the Syrian rebellion – have the Alawis harmed the Islamic community?  The Syrian and foreign jihadis’ answer that it has.  Therefore, suppressing it is legal.  If the West supports them, it too is acting illegally and deserves to be fought.  This is what the jihadis read the Quran as ordering (Surah II/190-193, my translation), 
Fight in the cause of God those who fight against you [that is, defend yourselves], but do not initiate hostilities.  Verily God does not love aggressors.
But [if such people are the aggressors] kill them wherever you encounter them and expel them from where they had expelled you, because tyranny is more insufferable than fighting…
And fight them to the death until subversion is no more and the religion of God is established.  But if they surrender, do not attack any but the evil doers.
This battle cry is memorized, along with the rest of the Quran, in daily classes by millions of young students (Arabic: taliban) in tens of thousands of religious schools all over the Islamic world.  We may take these words as essentially the marching orders of the jihadi.  For him, the Alawis are the aggressors.  And, by extension, the West, its local agents -- Westernized or perverted Muslim governments allied with the West -- and Israel are the true enemies of Islam. They are charged with having dispossessed Muslims from their homelands, oppressed them with tyrannies, stolen their wealth and attempted to corrupt their faith.  So it is moral and legal to fight them.  Only if they desist can peace come.  
Sayyid Qutub was not, of course, a jihadi, but he was feared as a justifier of subversion of secular order.  So, like his great predecessors, Hanbal and Taimiyah,  he was often imprisoned.  He spent about twelve years of his life in an Egyptian prison until at age sixty, he was convicted of sedition by a secular court and hanged.  During his life, especially in prison, he wrote commentaries [Arabic: tafasir]⁠1 on the Quran as many clerics have done.  But he also wrote widely on early Islamic society, Islamic law and what he saw as the foibles and failures of Western society.  Some of his writings bear comparison to the Islamic legal classics.  As a group, they have attracted a mass readership -- believed to be in the tens of millions -- throughout the Islamic world and have apparently influenced men as opposed to one another as the leaders of the Taliban, the Saudi Royal Establishment, al-Qaida, the Iranian and Iraqi clerics [Arabic: ulema] and now the various and competing groups of Syrian militants.  Sayyid Qutub is the philosopher of the Islamic revolution.
Implicit in his writings is the idea that Islam is under attack and therefore must defend itself because failure to do so would be to contravene the intention of God. He does not explain how this is to be done.  Defining the nature of the struggle, identifying the oppressors, justifying the tactics and predicting the outcome are the tasks taken up by several of Qutub’s successors.  Here I will focus on the one most identified with current conflict in Syria, most influential among Fundamentalists and most candid in laying out the nature of the struggle. 
Abu Bakr Naji, about whom -- or them, since some have suggested that “Naji”  is not one man but a committee -- nothing is known for certain. Perhaps the name is only a nom de plume attached to a book called Idarah at-Tawhish  (Management of Desolation).⁠2  Naji picked up where Sayyid Qutub left off.⁠3  He is the strategist of the politico-military and military doctrine of al-Qaida and such affiliates as Jabhat an-Nusrah and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
Naji begins with his interpretation of the post-caliphal world (that is, what we call the “colonial” world): as he sees it, it began when the West took control and degraded the culture of the inhabitants and divided what had been societies and made them into states on a Western model.   When the colonial powers withdrew, the states they had created “fell into the hands of…military governments or civil governments supported by military forces…Then the UN, the two superpowers and their acolytes took control of the world.”  Acting alone or with the connivance of  native agents [Arabic: wukal] , who were motivated by lust or the desire for riches, they overturned the order [Arabic: caqida]⁠4 of the societies.  As the societies weakened and became corrupted, the foreign powers and their local allies “squandered and plundered the resources of those states and spread inequity among the people.”  So, “since the fall of the caliphate…” their lives were conditioned by “no goodness, no justice and no [material benefits of] the world…”  
True Muslims, however, can take heart from the fact that the great states’ power is limited: unless, that is, the natives submit of their own accord.  So a part of the task that must be undertaken is to show the people the evil results of the current state system.  Of course, those now in power – whom he calls the Taghut⁠5 -- and their foreign allies realize this. To disguise their real objective and to win over the natives, these powers use deceptive media to portray their rule “as non-coercive and world-encompassing...[and to portray the native] people as subservient to it not only through fear, but also through love because it spreads freedom, justice, equality among humanity, and various other slogans.”
In assessing blame for this condition, Naji indicts not only foreign powers and their venal local henchmen -- although they are the major culprits --  but also the mass of the people.  Naji takes a dim view of them:  “Notice that when we say that the masses are the difficult factor…We know that they not generally dependable on account of [how the foreign imperialists and native turncoats have shaped them and we realize that there will be] no improvement for the general public until there is victory.  [Consequently, our strategy] is to gain their sympathy, or at the very least neutralize them.”
Naji sees the only effective way to stop the slide into iniquity which was begun in the colonial era to be a strategy of violence.  It cannot be accomplished, he and Qutub agreed, by the creation of institutions, by a “theoretical model or by sparkling slogans.”  What reformers offer is a snare for the youth that “prevents them from raising the slogan, ‘jihad is our path and death in the path of God is our noblest desire!’”  So, what must be undertaken is a long-term campaign to destroy the power of the imperialists and cleanse Islamic society.  
Such a violent policy, he continues, is justified by Islamic law.  Moreover, Westerners are hypocrites to inveigh against it on moral grounds.  Look at their record: “in the 20th century alone they committed massacres against themselves and against the Muslims⁠6 [on a scale} which had not been matched in all of human history.  Even the most brutal peoples, like the Tatars [or Mongols], did not shed as much blood as they did.  They frivolously spent the money of the Muslims and their own money—which is, in reality, the money of God—for spreading unbelief, moral depravity, and debauchery, while millions of humans died hungry, the number of which some rational minds would not believe even if it were recorded in a book.
“As for the [the Middle Eastern] nationalists, the Baathists, and the democrats, they have afflicted the Islamic community [Arabic: the Ummah]  by corrupting religion and by the ghastly destruction of souls.  That which Saddam [Husain], [Hafez al-] Asad, [Hosni] Mubarak, [Saudi King] Fahd, the Socialist Party in Yemen, and others did with regards to this destruction of souls alone surpasses those killed in all of the wars of the jihadis in this century...”
Since war is thus justified, it must be carefully planned and executed.  It has several stages. 
The first stage is “vexation” of the enemy aimed at creating chaos in which the forces of the foreign powers and their local proxies are distracted and exhausted and the Muslims learn that they have power and learn how to use it.  Operations are of diverse kinds but should be dramatic.  Thus, they should be on a small scale, carried out independently by autonomous groups -- not like the elaborate attack on the World Trade Center which was premature.  What needs to take place at this stage is “advancement of groups made capable of  vexation through drilling and operational practice so that they will be prepared psychologically and practically for the stage of the management of savagery.” 
The second stage is the spread of savagery.  “Note here that we said that the goal is to dislodge these regions [which have been selected for attack] from the control of the regimes of apostasy.  It is the goal we are publicly proclaiming and which we are determined to carry out, not  [just] the outbreak of chaos.”  This second stage appears in Naji’s order as guerrilla warfare.  It is essentially what is now happening in Syria and Iraq.  As he sees it, it is the transition from small scale and scattered terrorism to large-scale warfare, his third stage.  
The third stage is the administration of savagery.  The tasks that must be undertaken at this stage include “establishing a fighting society” with requisite means of self defense.  Also necessary is the creation of an intelligence agency both to learn the plans of the enemy and to guard against internal subversion.  And, a socio-political program aimed at  “Uniting the hearts of the people” by means of money, food and medical services and by providing a functioning system of justice under Shariah governance.  This implies the creation of an enclave or territory under the control of the movement.  From this base it will become possible to create a rudimentary state.  We can see the beginnings of this already in eastern Syria.⁠7  From this base, it will become  “possible to expand and attack the enemies in order to repel them, plunder their money, and place them in a constant state of apprehension and desire for reconciliation.”
The word “administration” leads Naji to a step beyond those acceptable to Qutub.  Indeed, he advocates what seems perilously close to adopting the course of a business school: “We must make use of books on the subject of administration, especially the management studies and theories which have been recently published, since they are consonant with the nature of modern societies.  There is more than one site on the Internet in which one can obtain management books.  I believe that they can be downloaded from the website Mufakkirat al-Islam…Moreover, it is possible to obtain more management books and resources from other sites on the Internet or from libraries and publishing houses…”  
But, he recognizes, this is a dangerous if necessary policy, so while “ in our plan we open the door of management wide to those who have mastered its art , [we open] the door of leadership only to those who are reliable, even though there is a security apparatus which keeps watch over the two doors, monitoring the professionalism of the actions of the leaders and the managers in order to prevent infiltration.”
Management, he says, is not the aim.  It is only the means.  What is to be managed is power.  Here Naji tries to draw lessons from the Russian campaign in Afghanistan.  The Afghans could not defeat the Russians in formal battles because the Russians had overwhelming military capacity. What the Afghans had to do was to provoke them so that their forces over-extended themselves and were caught in wasting, un-winnable conflict, which bankrupted their economy and lost the support both of their own people and the government they sought to protect.  America, he thought, will fall easily into this trap.
Driven by its own imperatives, “America will either seek revenge and the conflict will intensify or it will launch a limited war.  In the case of the latter, its grudge will not be satisfied and it will not succeed in curbing this escalating expansion.  America might have caused the downfall of the state of Afghanistan, which it had already planned for, or [the Taliban state] might have collapsed without the momentous events of September…[In any case America] will begin to confront the transformation of [its Afghan campaign]… into tens of thousands of groups…which will turn their strikes against it.” 
As the campaign spread and as it seeks to retaliate,  “America will not find a state on which it can take its revenge, because the remaining [states} are its clients.  Thus, it will become clear to it that the regimes which support it cannot protect it from attacks and cannot preserve its strategic interests and the interests of its adopted daughter, Israel, in the region.  It has no choice but to fall into the second trap [that is occupying] the region and set[ing] up military bases…[This will put it at] war with the population in the region.  It is obvious at this very moment that it stirs up movements that increase the jihadi expansion and create legions among the youth who contemplate and plan for resistance…
“So [the correct tactic is to] diversify and widen the vexation [ Create multiple non cooperative centers of gravity with distributed attacks.  Aim cause adversary to try to expend resources defending everywhere.]strikes against the Crusader-Zionist enemy in every place in the Islamic world, and even outside of it if possible, so as to disperse the efforts of the alliance of the enemy and thus drain it to the greatest extent possible.  For example:  If a tourist resort that the Crusaders patronize in Indonesia is hit, all of the tourist resorts in all of the states of the world will have to be secured by the work of additional forces, which [will cause] a huge increase in spending.  If a usurious bank belonging to the Crusaders is struck in Turkey, all of the banks belonging to the Crusaders will have to be secured in all of the countries and the (economic) draining will increase.  If an oil interest is hit near the port of Aden, there will have to be intensive security measures put in place for all of the oil companies, and their tankers, and the oil pipelines in order to protect them and draining will increase.  If two of the apostate authors are killed in a simultaneous operation in two different countries, they will have to secure thousands of writers in other Islamic countries.  In this way, there is a diversification and widening of the circle of targets and vexation strikes which are accomplished by small, separate groups.  Moreover, repeatedly (striking) the same kind of target two or three times will make it clear to them that this kind (of target) will continue to be vulnerable.”  In short, Naji believes, violence is necessary.  It  weakens the enemy while it performs as the school – almost the social “hospital” – needed to transform corrupt societies into the pure Islam of tomorrow.
Those who adopt struggle must confront reality:  “One who previously engaged in jihad knows that it is naught but violence, crudeness, terrorism, frightening (others), and massacring…”⁠8  This beginning stage is fundamental.  It must be conducted ruthlessly.  So must the other stages be effected since jihad cannot be carried out with softness, “whether the softness is in the mode of inviting others to join (the jihad), taking up positions, or (undertaking) the operations, since the ingredient of softness is one of the ingredients of failure for any jihadi action…Regardless of whether we use harshness or softness, our enemies will not be merciful to us if they seize us.  Thus, it behooves us to make them think one thousand times before attacking us…Consequently, there is nothing preventing us from spilling their blood; rather, we see that this is one of the most important obligations since they do not repent, undertake prayer, and give alms.  All religion belongs to God.”
Naji goes on to assert that only the certainty of revenge will prevent the West and its native agents from harming Muslims.  Revenge [Arabic: thar] is a very old and even pre-Islamic concept.  Let us be clear: it is a concept we in the West understand.  Retaliation is the policy we adopted in the “Delicate Balance of Terror” vis-à-vis the Soviet Union.   It also is the policy we adopted in the aftermath of the attack on the World Trade Center.  Naji proclaims its part in the modern Muslim Fundamentalist struggle.  The tools and the geography are different, but the principle of making the aggressor “pay the price” is similar:  As he says, “No harm comes to the Ummah or to us without (the enemy) paying a price.”  Not quite an eye for an eye, but certainly a death for a death.  That policy has the dual objective of deterring attacks on Muslims and of “spreading hopelessness in the hearts of the enemy. 
Making the enemy “pay the price”  can occur anywhere: “if the apostate Egyptian regime undertakes an action to kill or capture a group of mujahids, the youth of jihad in Algeria or Morocco can direct a strike against the Egyptian embassy and issue a statement of justification, or they can kidnap Egyptian diplomats as hostages until the group of mujahids is freed…The policy of violence must also be followed such that if the demands are not met, the hostages should be liquidated in a terrifying manner,⁠9 which will send fear into the hearts of the enemy and his supporters.“
In conclusion, the politico-military doctrine Naji lays out can be described as a Muslim version of what Mao Zedong and Ho Chi-minh proclaimed as their kind of war: a combination of terrorism when that is the only means of operation, guerrilla warfare when that becomes possible as areas of operation are secured and ultimately, when the conflict “matures,” the creation of a warlike but independent state-society which he thinks of as a new caliphate.  It is a sequence often played out in the Nineteenth and Twentieth centuries all over the world as I have reported in my book Violent Politics.  It is ugly, brutal and costly, but it has nearly always eventually succeeded.   Whatever may be the outcome now in Syria,  Naji gives us a plan of how his followers intend to fight it there and perhaps throughout the world.  As he tells us, it “not an economic, political, or social battle“ with state-like opponents for territory but “a battle of  the proclamation of the single God [Arabic: tawhid] against unbelief and faith against polytheism..”    
Nothing quite like it has been on the world stage since the great wars of religion some four hundred years ago. 
--------------------
A selection of his commentaries is translated by M.A. Salahi and A.A Shamis in The Shade of the Quran (MWH, London, 1979).  His Social Justice in Islam  was translated by John Hardie for the American Council of Learned Societies in 1953.
The Arabic word tawhish (from w-h-sh) has multiple evocative meanings.   Used in pre-Islamic poetry, it is a place frequented only by wild animals; of a Bedouin raider, it takes on the meaning of “lightening his load”  in order to escape or  to become like a cornered wild animal driven to desperation.   Perhaps the best way to think of it in Western terms is something like what Hobbes meant by “the state of nature,”  that is, being outside the normal constraints of civilized society. [CS note: according to one of Polk’s correspondents, “Tawhish” … “actually means brutality, savagery, bestiality from the word "Whash', which means monster or savage animal.”
I have used the translation done by William McCants under the title The Management of Savagery,  commissioned by the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University, in 2006. No publisher was indicated, but it available on the internet.  I have not been able to secure a copy of the Arabic original.
From the development of his argument, it seems to me that by  caqida he meant not only doctrine and the religious establishment but also something like the social contract .
A Quranic term for evil-doers related to the idea of idol worshipers.
Foreign Policy,  November 30, 2013, Stephen Walt, “Why do they hate us (II): How many Muslims has the U.S. killed in the past 30 years?”  He estimates that the number is between about 300,000 and a million.
See The Guardian, July 12, 2013,  Ghaith Abdul-Ahad: "How Syria's mould-breaking al-Nusra Front  is winning hearts and minds."
This description of the jihad as it has happened in Syria is documented by Human Rights Watch, “You Can Still See Their Blood,” a report on massacres in the Latakia area of Syria in  October 2013.
The “terrifying manner” has been shown in a number of videos and photo stories all designed to capture maximum attention.  American media have been reluctant to show them; for one gruesome event, see Paris Match, September 12-18, 2013 , “Surenchére dans l’Horreur.”  (“The Extremes of Horror.”)

29 November 2013

Iraq Sitrep: No Light at the End of the Tunnel


The United States bears a moral responsibility for the murderous state of affairs in Iraq, but contemporary American grand strategy has become a self-referencing mix of arrogance, narcissism, and exceptionalism; so it is not surprising that most Americans have dismissed Iraq their minds (as they are now dismissing Afghanistan).  Attached is an excellent reminder of the situation in Iraq.  
Patrick Cockburn, one of the very best journalists now covering conflicts in the Arab World and Central Asia interviews Muqtada al-Sadr, one of the most influential Shia clerics in Iraq and leader of the Mehdi Army, a powerful Shia faction.  Sadr party is now a part of the Shia dominated Iraqi government, but he is becoming increasingly alienated from its leader, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.  Al-Sadr argues that a toxic mix of (1) sectarianism, (2) governmental incompetence and corruption, and (3) external interference by the U.S. and U.K. and Iran is plunging Iraq into an ever-deepening state of chaos, with no light at the end of the tunnel. (Note: I inserted a few clarifying comments in red.)
Chuck Spinney
(h/t Antiwar.com)

————[Attachment]-------
"The near future of Iraq is dark"
Warning from Muqtada al-Sadr - the Shia cleric whose word is law to millions of his countrymen

BY PATRICK COCKBURN • NOVEMBER 29, 2013 


In a rare interview at his headquarters in Najaf, he tells Patrick Cockburn of his fears for a nation growing ever more divided on sectarian lines.
The future of Iraq as a united and independent country is endangered by sectarian Shia-Sunni hostility says Muqtada al-Sadr, the Shia religious leader whose Mehdi Army militia fought the US and British armies and who remains a powerful figure in Iraqi politics. He warns of the danger that [1] “the Iraqi people will disintegrate, [2] its government will disintegrate, and [3] it will be easy for external powers to control the country”.
In an interview with The Independent in the holy city of Najaf, 100 miles south-west of Baghdad – the first interview Mr Sadr has given face-to-face with a Western journalist for almost 10 years – he expressed pessimism about the immediate prospects for Iraq, saying: “The near future is dark.”
[1] Mr Sadr said he is most worried about sectarianism affecting Iraqis at street level, believing that “if it spreads among the people it will be difficult to fight”. He says he believes that standing against sectarianism has made him lose support among his followers.
Mr Sadr’s moderate stance is key at a moment when sectarian strife has been increasing in Iraq – some 200 Shia were killed in the past week alone. For 40 years, Mr Sadr and religious leaders from his family have set the political trend within the Shia community in Iraq. Their long-term resistance to Saddam Hussein and, later, their opposition to the US-led occupation had a crucial impact.
Mr Sadr has remained a leading influence in Iraq after an extraordinary career in which he has often come close to being killed. Several times, it appeared that the political movement he leads, the Sadrist Movement, would be crushed.
He was 25 in 1999 when his father, Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr, a revered Shia leader, and Mr Sadr’s two brothers were assassinated by Saddam Hussein’s gunmen in Najaf. He just survived sharing a similar fate, remaining under house arrest in Najaf until 2003 when Saddam was overthrown by the US invasion. He and his followers became the most powerful force in many Shia parts of Iraq as enemies of the old regime, but also opposing the occupation. In 2004, his Mehdi Army fought two savage battles against American troops in Najaf, and in Basra it engaged in a prolonged guerrilla war against the British Army which saw the Mehdi Army take control of the city.
The Mehdi Army was seen by the Sunni community as playing a central role in the sectarian murder campaign that reached its height in 2006-7. Mr Sadr says that “people infiltrated the Mehdi Army and carried out these killings”, adding that if his militiamen were involved in the murder of Sunnis he would be the first person to denounce them.
For much of this period, Mr Sadr did not appear to have had full control of forces acting in his name; ultimately he stood them down. At the same time, the Mehdi Army was being driven from its old strongholds in Basra and Sadr City by the US Army and resurgent Iraqi government armed forces. Asked about the status of the Mehdi Army today, Mr Sadr says: “It is still there but it is frozen because the occupation is apparently over. If it comes back, they [the Mehdi Army militiamen] will come back.”
[2] In the past five years, Mr Sadr has rebuilt his movement as one of the main players in Iraqi politics with a programme that is a mixture of Shia religion, populism and Iraqi nationalism. After a strong showing in the general election in 2010, it became part of the present government, with six seats in the cabinet. But Mr Sadr is highly critical of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s performance during his two terms in office, accusing his administration of being sectarian, corrupt and incompetent.
Speaking of Mr Maliki, with whom his relations are increasingly sour, Mr Sadr said that “maybe he is not the only person responsible for what is happening in Iraq, but he is the person in charge”. Asked if he expected Mr Maliki to continue as Prime Minister, he said: “I expect he is going to run for a third term, but I don’t want him to.”
[2&3] Mr Sadr said he and other Iraqi leaders had tried to replace him in the past, but Mr Maliki had survived in office because of his support from foreign powers, notably the US and Iran. “What is really surprising is that America and Iran should decide on one person,” he said. “Maliki is strong because he is supported by the United States, Britain and Iran.”
Mr Sadr is particularly critical of the government’s handling of the Sunni minority, which lost power in 2003, implying they had been marginalised and their demands ignored. He thinks that the Iraqi government lost its chance to conciliate Sunni protesters in Iraq who started demonstrating last December, asking for greater civil rights and an end to persecution.
“My personal opinion is that it is too late now to address these [Sunni] demands when the government, which is seen as a Shia government by the demonstrators, failed to meet their demands,” he said. Asked how ordinary Shia, who make up the great majority of the thousand people a month being killed by al-Qa’ida bombs, should react, Mr Sadr said: “They should understand that they are not being attacked by Sunnis. They are being attacked by extremists, they are being attacked by external powers.”
As Mr Sadr sees it, the problem in Iraq is that Iraqis as a whole are traumatised by almost half a century in which there has been a “constant cycle of violence: Saddam, occupation, war after war [also the Iran-Iraq War and the decade of sanctions after the 1st Gulf War], first Gulf war, then second Gulf war, then the occupation war, then the resistance – this would lead to a change in the psychology of Iraqis”. He explained that Iraqis make the mistake of trying to solve one problem by creating a worse one, such as getting the Americans to topple Saddam Hussein but then having the problem of the US occupation. He compared Iraqis to “somebody who found a mouse in his house, then he kept a cat, then he wanted to get the cat out of the house so he kept a dog, then to get the dog out of his house he bought an elephant, so he bought a mouse again”.
Asked about the best way for Iraqis to deal with the mouse, Mr Sadr said: “By using neither the cat nor the dog, but instead national unity, rejection of sectarianism, open-mindedness, having open ideas, rejection of extremism.”
[3] A main theme of Mr Sadr’s approach is to bolster Iraq as an independent nation state, able to make decisions in its own interests. Hence his abiding hostility to the American and British occupation, holding this responsible for many of Iraq’s present ills. To this day, neither he nor anybody from his movement will meet American or British officials. But he is equally hostile to intervention by Iran in Iraqi affairs saying: “We refuse all kinds of interventions from external forces, whether such an intervention was in the interests of Iraqis or against their interests. The destiny of Iraqis should be decided by Iraqis themselves.”
This is a change of stance for a man who was once demonised by the US and Britain as a pawn of Iran. The strength of the Sadrist movement under Mr Sadr and his father – and its ability to withstand powerful enemies and shattering defeats – owes much to the fact it that it blends Shia revivalism with social activism and Iraqi nationalism.
Why are Iraqi government members so ineffective and corrupt? Mr Sadr believes that “they compete to take a share of the cake, rather than competing to serve their people”
Asked why the Kurdistan Regional Government had been more successful in terms of security and economic development than the rest of Iraq, Mr Sadr thought there was less stealing and corruption among the Kurds and maybe because “they love their ethnicity and their region”. If the government tried to marginalise them, they might ask for independence: “Mr Massoud Barzani [the KRG President] told me that ‘if Maliki pushes on me harder, we are going to ask for independence’.”
At the end of the interview Mr Sadr asked me if I was not frightened of interviewing him and would not this make the British Government consider me a terrorist? Secondly, he wondered if the British Government still considered that it had liberated the Iraqi people, and wondered if he should sue the Government on behalf of the casualties caused by the British occupation.
(Reprinted from The Independent by permission of author or representative)

11 November 2013

Should the AF Retire the A-10? - A Seminar on a Seminal Question


[Reprinted in Small Wars Journal, 13 November 2013]

The Air Force has decided to retire the A-10 attack aircraft from its inventory.  To people who follow defense, particularly old timers, this cynical move is hardly surprising.  

The purpose of the posting is to announce a seminar in Washington D.C. where experts will address some of the issues raised by this controversial decision.  The seminar is sponsored by the Strauss Military Reform Project will take place at 0930 on November 22 at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  It will be open to the public and interested readers can find the RSVP details and the agenda at this link.  Readers are cordially invited to attend a public (and free) seminar discussing some of the issues raised by this decision.  A listing with links to relevant background reading material can be found here

The remainder of this posting is intended to give you a little background, written admittedly from my perspective of being a long-time supporter of the A-10, dating back to my involvement as an Air Force officer in vulnerability studies and (peripherally) in some gunfire testing in the late 1960s and later as a civilian in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

The A-10 is arguably the most effective combat airplane ever designed to provide close support to ground troops in combat.  This is a very demanding mission, because it is usually necessary when the troops are in trouble.  Pilots have to develop a feel for the battlefield and need to think like infantrymen.  The A-10 pilots are trained specifically for this mission, and work with ground forces in training exercises.  The A-10's staying power over a battlefield (i.e., long loitering capability) gives it a level of responsiveness that high speed jets like the F-15 can not equal.  Moreover, its excellent low speed maneuverability, its highly effective 30mm cannon, and its low vulnerability to enemy fire make it the most responsive and capable CAS weapon in our air inventory.  It is no secret that ground troops in the dusty of battlefields of Afghanistan love the A-10.  

Nevertheless, the AF hates the A-10 with passions rooted deeply in its founding culture of precision strategic bombardment.  

The history of this hatred goes back to the doctrinal debates in the Army Air Corps Tactical School in the 1930s, the so-called precision bombardment of Germany and Japan, and the evangelism surrounding the AF's fight for institutional independence that ended with the AF's successful secession for the Army in 1947.  If you doubt the AF's evangelism surrounding the claim of the independent war winning capabilities of strategic bombing, watch and listen carefully to the dialogues in the movies "12 O'Clock High" or "Command Decision." (available on Netflix)

Fundamentally, the AF's animosity toward the A-10 is rooted in the fact that the A-10 works for the Army, and the A-10 subordinates its operational art to that of the Army ground forces it supports.  This combined-arms outlook stands in sharp contrast to the Air Force's view of itself.  Since well before WWII, the AF has promoted its organizational independence from the Army by claiming it could provide a unique independent war winning capability -- precision strategic bombing and destruction of what it deems to be the vital organs of its adversary's supporting economic and political infrastructure -- for example, ball bearing production by Germany during World War II.  This claim leads to a vision of war that is diametrically opposed to one of being part of a combined-arms team. The AF's old old motto, 'Victory Through Airpower Alone," may have fallen into disuse after its litany of failed promises, not least because its theory of vital nodes has not been proven in real war, but the dream has never been forgotten; and today, it remains deeply rooted in the AF's cultural DNA.

Before rejecting this argument, readers should remember: The A-10 had to be forced upon the AF by the Secretary of Defense in the aftermath of the AF's poor performance in the close air support mission during Vietnam, a war where the AF chose to concentrate the bulk of its efforts on the strategic bombing of North Vietnam -- far more heavily, in fact, that when it bombed Germany.  

Another indicator of the AF's dislike of the A-10 becomes apparent when one considers the historical fact that the A-10 production line was the only AF fighter/attack airplane production line that was shut down at the end of its production run in the early 1980s, during the glory days of the Reagan spending spree.  This was a period when everything got funding extensions.  The higher cost F-15 and F-16 production lines, in contrast, were kept open, and the AF bought far more than these fighters than originally planned in the 1970s.  

Also, remember how tens of billions were spent during those glory days restarting the flawed B-1's production, producing only 21 super expensive B-2s -- both strategic bombers, and even restarting the troubled C-5, arguably one of the biggest cost overrunners in DoD's history.  

Moreover, despite the unconstrained programmatic hijinks in the 1980s, routine efforts to replace the A-10 in the mid-to-late 1980s with a more modern version of itself (i.e., a low-cost dedicated CAS platform) were sabotaged by the AF after the initial work was approved by the Secretary of Defense.  

Finally, consider the fact that while the AF now says it must trash the A-10 for what it says are budgetary reasons, it also is lobbying hard to start a $50 billion next-generation strategic bomber program that will suck money out of the taxpayer for the next 50 to 75 years.

Despite the AF's long-term opposition to the A-10, it should be remembered that the A-10 has been a stunning -- some might say embarrassing -- success in every war in which it has been employed, beginning with the First Gulf War in 1991 -- a war, it should be remembered, where the AF reluctantly deployed the A-10 only after the theater commander, an Army general, insisted on it being deployed.  And in today's wars, Marines and Army grunts in Afghanistan will tell you, as they have told me, they love the A-10.

Yet, despite this success story, the AF now claims it is being forced to retire the A-10 as cost saving measure, while at the same time, it is cobbling together a plan to spend $500 billion on a new bomber.  This crazy situation is made even more bizarre by the fact that retiring the A-10 won't even save much money, because it has, by far, the lowest operating costs per flying hour of any fighter/attack aircraft in the AF inventory.   

The current 'plan' for its close support mission in the future -- really a ludicrous rationalization -- is that the AF will replace the low-cost A-10's low-cost, proven capability to support ground troops with the high-cost, highly problematic, multi-mission capabilities of  F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.  

The F-35, as just about everyone knows, is a  deeply troubled, super-high-cost stealth fighter that is way behind schedule.  The F-35, predictably, is plagued with a host of technical problems.  If the F-35 ever becomes operational, it  will be completely unfit for the kind of knife fighting the A-10 excels at -- low and slow jinking around a battlefield saturated with small arms threats.  The F-35 will be far too vulnerable to these cheap threats (including light machine guns).  The F-35's poor thrust-to-weight and high wing loading guarantee poor agility at low speeds and long re-attack times; it will have nothing comparable in offensive capability to the A-10's 30mm gun; its low fuel fraction guarantees the F-35 will have no loitering capability.  Any battle damage the F-35 somehow manages to survive will be almost impossible to repair at the field level without depot-level contractor support, because of its high complexity systems and exotic stealth structures.  Moreover, the F-35's high cost and complexity will guarantee much reduced inventories, poor availability, and low sortie rates coupled with very high operational costs.  

Readers who are interested in learning more about these issues and live near Washington DC are invited to a seminar discussing them.  Participants will address questions surrounding (1) the vital importance of the Close Air Support mission, (2) the controversial decision to retire the A-10 in favor of the F-35, (3) what it will take to provide a CAS capability in the future, and most importantly, (4) how the Defense Department should proceed to insure our ground troops will be given the support they need and deserve.  

The seminar will take the form of a discussion among people having long experience in this mission area -- from a variety perspectives -- from aircraft designers, to pilots with A-10 combat experience and, most importantly, the views soldiers and marines on the receiving end of close support in ground combat operations.  In the interests of having a vigorous debate, pushbacks by people supporting the AF decision will be not only welcomed but emphatically encouraged and solicited.  The goal is to promote a free market of ideas. 

This seminar will take place on 0930 Nov. 22  at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and will be sponsored by the Strauss Military Reform Project, a subsidiary of the Project on Government Oversight.  The details of the seminar and a list of relevant reading materials can be found at the links at the top of this posting. 

08 November 2013

Polk Report: Understanding Syria (1)

Attached is an excellent primer on Syria -- its history, culture, and nature of the ongoing civil war.  It is written by my friend and historian William R. Polk.  He has given me permission to post it ... I strongly recommend that viewers take the time to read it carefully -- it is long, but well worth the investment.

Chuck Spinney

Part 1 of a three part series
By William R. Polk
November 6, 2013

1. Geographical Syria

Syria is a small, poor and crowded country. On the map, it appears about the size of Washington State or Spain, but only about a quarter of its 185 thousand square kilometers is arable land. That is, “economic Syria” is about as large as a combination of Maryland and Connecticut or Switzerland. Most is desert, some is suitable for grazing but less than 10% of the surface is permanent cropland.

Except for a narrow belt along the Mediterranean, the whole country is subject to extreme temperatures that cause frequent dust storms and periodic droughts.  Four years of devastating drought from 2006 to 2011 turned Syria into a land like the American “dust bowl” of 1930s. That drought was said to have been the worst ever recorded, but it was one in a long sequence: Just in the period from 2001 to 2010, Syria had 60 “significant” dust storms. The most important physical aspect of these storms, as was the experience in America in the 1930s, was the removal of the topsoil. Politically, they triggered the civil war. (continued)

27 October 2013

A Really Dumb Way to Run a Grand Strategy


[Note: Professor Brenner gave me permission to distribute and post the attached essay.  Without saying so, he describes a way that seems tailor-made to systematically violate just about all the Criteria for a Sensible Grand Strategy.] 


NSA Does the Grand Tour
by Michael Brenner, PhD
Professor of International Affairs
University of Pittsburgh

NSA returned to center stage last week thanks to revelations that it has tapped the phones of European leaders.  The resulting ruckus raises three questions: why? how far will the targeting governments go in demanding redress? how will Washington respond? In considering them, I look at the political/psychological underpinnings of the Euro-Americans relationship.
 On Tuesday Barack Obama called President Francois Hollande of France to explain the National Security Agency’s massive surveillance of French government offices, businesses and private citizens. Obama stated that this was a well meaning attempt to protect both countries from Islamic terrorism. He offered to “reexamine” the program so as to determine whether the right balance was struck between public safety and privacy rights. On Wednesday Obama called Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany to explain the National Security Agency’s massive surveillance of German government offices, businesses and private citizens – including Merkel’s personal cell phone.  Obama told her, too, that the program was crucial to their two countries’ well-being but that he would “reexamine” its modalities. He added that the United States was not now monitoring her phone (using the present perfect tense).  He expressed nominal regrets and pled ignorance, but refrained from pledging to cease and desist from spying on America’s allies.  Being the last remaining super power and champion of the “free world’ means that you never have to say you are sorry – or, at least, that is the conviction of the White House. Being Barack Obama means that behavior others experience as offensive does not elicit an admission of error.  Being Barack Obama also means granting your security and intelligence chiefs autonomy and never challenging them.
The European leaders thus joined Presidents Pena Nieto of Mexico and Dilma Rousseff of Brazil on the list of 35 heads of government who receive routine and comprehension attention from the United States’ intelligence agencies.  The ruckus sparked by these revelations is a distraction for a Washington preoccupied with handling multiple Middle East crises while keeping its own domestic household from grinding to a halt. What others think and feel is always a secondary concern of American officials who view even close, historical allies as auxiliaries to its campaigns of global management. Will the intensity of the reaction in European capitals oblige them to take more fully into account foreigners’ chafing at the terms of the partnership and specifically the modalities of the “war on terror?” Will the Europeans press ahead with proposals for an enforceable code of conduct on surveillance in the face of American resistance and possible threats to curb intelligence sharing? Will Washington express contrition or offer a forthcoming response?
If the past is a reliable guide to the present and future, the answers are “no,” “no” and “no.”  As a preface to the reasoning that leads to this conclusion, we should examine why Washington has undertaken so extensive a project in the first place. There are three intersecting and mutually reinforcing vectors at play. One is technological determinism. Simply put, whatever can be done will be done. The technical resources of the United States’ spy agencies are enormous. $50 billion a year over more than a decade buys you a lot of sophisticated hardware, refined software and the organizational means to deploy it. However inefficiently these vast sums are spent, they do produce enormous capability. The logic of the technical systems, strengthened by bureaucratic momentum, ensures that it will not sit idle.  Only a fraction is applied to ferret out information about the doings of predefined militant groups who are finite in number despite the generous definition of who qualifies used by American officials. Another modest fraction is needed to sweep up the trillions of electronic messages sent or received by Americans on their myriad gadgets. That leaves considerable excess capacity available to engage in a similar vacuuming in friendly countries. American intelligence agencies employ roughly three million persons, one million of whom (like Edward Snowden) received “top secret” security clearances. Unless data is generated to keep them occupied, staff budgets risk being cut. Or, they might use their free time to engage in mischievous activities.
The niceties of legality and sovereignty are cavalierly overlooked in an atmosphere pervaded by the anxieties and insecurities generated by 9/11 and subsequently institutionalized in the GWOT. There is a sense of overarching mission that provides a convenient justification for doing anything and everything that adds to the amount of information at the disposal of the American government about what is going on everywhere in the world. Differentiations among countries, among specific targets, among threat assessments are elided in the compulsion to know all.  “American security above all else” is the motto etched on the psyches of government leaders, intelligence officials and operators. The resulting omnibus approach to information gathering has been publicly proclaimed and justified by Director of NSA General Keith Alexander and his brother-in-arms for defense of the realm James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence. It is popularly known as the “build a bigger haystack” strategy for intelligence gathering.
No one who holds a responsible or influential position in the American security establishment questions that premise. Any conceivable major alteration in the multiple collection programs being conducted around the world would be blocked by this powerful systemic inertia.
This attitude corresponds with the still deepened entrenched conviction that the world system places unique obligations on the United States that it only can meet strenuous self assertion. Talk of an emerging multipolar world with the attendant requirement of cultivating the arts of multilateralism cuts no ice among the American foreign policy community.  Impulses and aptitudes are uncongenial to such an adaptation. Oddly, practical signs of diminishing American latitude for willful action has the opposite effect, i.e. the resulting frustration prompts redoubled efforts to prove that the world in fact is not changing. 
EUROPEAN ATTITUDES
The situation on the other side of the balance points to a similar conclusion. However, the logic in Europe is somewhat different.  What the two sides have in common in a greatly exaggerated fear of terrorist attack.  This free floating anxiety, or dread, originates with the trauma of 9/11 as Europeans imagined themselves the victims of an atrocity on that scale. It was deepened and perpetuated by the Madrid and London bombings eight years ago.  By any standard measure, the actual casualties suffered in these attacks is low. They number less those killed or injured in the waves of small scale violence that struck Western Europe in the 1970s and 1980s. Perceptions of the menace are magnified by the 9/11 events and by the ascription to al-Qaida and affiliates of capabilities far beyond what they ever had and, most certainly, beyond the wildest dreams of the fragmented franchises that today carry the al-Qaida brand name. Moreover, that itself makes the questionable assumption that the dreams of al-Shabaab, al-Qaidi in the Islamic Maghreb, al-Qaidi in the Arabian Peninsula et al actually extend to the West given their local agendas, focus and means.
To be perfectly honest, we should admit that the spectre of Islamic terrorism carries more fearsome imagery than does homegrown terrorism.  Alien Muslim names and faces scare us. This subjective reality is an objective fact of life. Moreover, European politicians harbor another fear: namely, that a bloody terrorist incident could evoke a popular reaction that holds them accountable and thereby could threaten their tenure in office. That latter fear exercises a hold over political minds in Washington as well.
Are these circumstances determinant when it comes to unbounded American electronic surveillance of European countries?  After all, it is hard to see how the tapping of Angel Merkel’s cell phone or Francois Hollande’s Elysee line makes Americans safer. It is true that there are other, unrelated advantages that might accrue to the United States government.  Reliable first-hand knowledge of thinking about upcoming trade talks, for example, could be helpful to the American side. This apparently was the aim of one surveillance program directed at the Mexican government. Intra-governmental allied deliberations about intervention in the Syrian civil war or acceptable terms of a nuclear deal with Iran also might be of some marginal diplomatic value.  On balance, though, these benefits hardly seem worth the cost of alienating friends and estranging European leaders from Mr. Obama.
This appraisal assumes that the protests of European leaders are not just rhetoric designed to placate domestic resentment at the intrusive American invasion of their privacy. It is by no means certain that this is the case.  For months, they have known that the US had been collecting their citizens’ communication in contravention of national laws and EU standards without doing more than uttering a “tsk tsk.”  If this week’s remonstrance is personal pique, it will not overcome the deep seated inhibition about challenging American high handedness.  European countries, leaders and publics, are habituated to a dependence on the United States that entails more than tangible security. Indeed, it goes deeper than any combination of utilitarian considerations. Rather, it is an entrenched psychological fact of life. The “war on terror” has reinforced that psychological relationship – a classic dominant-subordinate relationship.
EUROPE IN THE GWOT
Let us bear in mind that European governments willingly have served as auxiliaries in the GWOT war. Every NATO country except France acted as an accessory to the rendition program that seized and delivered a multitude of vaguely identified suspects for interrogation and torture. A few of the “black sites” were on European soil. All those leaders took extreme steps to ensure that their collaboration remained secret. [1]
The official reactions to revelatory reports by Amnesty International, The Washington Post, Seymour Hersh in The New Yorker, and then others, were as remarkable as the actions cited. Firm statements emanated from one European official after another that they knew nothing of the matter. The reports were uniformly dismissed as based on unverifiable “rumors, allegations and accusations.”[2]  These leaders were lying (being untruthful?)– as now is proven.
A Council of Europe investigation led by Swiss Senator Dick inquiry concluded that fourteen European governments, including a large majority of western European ones, had colluded with U.S. intelligence in a “spider’s web” of secret flights and detention centers that violated international human rights law.2  The European Parliament, where attitudes were split along party and national lines, nonetheless took the bit between its teeth in appointing a special committee led by Italian MEP Claudio Fava. Both bodies protested the “obstruction and uncooperativeness of all governments implicated”, and of  Dr. Solana, High Representative for the EU’s Common Foreign & Security Policy.[3]
The tacit accord among European officials in Brussels and national capitals to sweep the scandal under the rug blocked a full exposure of what happened and, more important, the thinking of all those in high office who were complicit.
Instead, European citizens were treated to high minded perorations that torture on European territory was anathema, and the granting of transit rights to expedite torture almost as heinous. They went hand in hand with outraged denunciation of torture at Guantanamo.[4]
It is highly unlikely that any Western European government would itself engage in torture or follow a policy of rendition. Yet, because the Americans relieved them of the moral and, it seemed, the political responsibility, they were quite content to turn a blind eye. Raison d’état offered the necessary justification for acting as accessories before and after the fact. But, if raison d’état dictated that the promised information was so valuable as to set aside their reservations, why should it not provide compelling grounds to be honest in presenting the matter to their own populace?  Most seriously, if some European leaders believe deep down that they may need a roughhouse America to fight their corner in an existential battle against the dark forces of Islamic fundamentalism, should that grave judgment be kept their personal secret?
This state of mind – combining fearfulness with the need for reassuring American protection –is evident, too, in the more recent tolerance of electronic surveillance in the name of fighting terrorism. For only when the Snowden documents exposed the extraordinary scope of the surveillance did it arouse consternation and dismay.
Why this unseemly behavior? European leaders were acting out of fear. Fear of terrorist violence. Fear of confronting their own citizens with the moral dilemma. And fear of provoking the ire of the Bush and then Obama administrations. Washington’s ultimate blackmail weapon is the unspoken threat of leaving
Europeans, and the world they inhabit, to their own devices. European anxiety at the slightest hint of an American reversion to isolationism is as pervasive and profound as it is baseless.  Yet, the dread evoked by the prospect that the United States’ power will be retracted lurks in the background of every transatlantic encounter.
Consequently, the Europeans’ own human rights credentials have become hostage to the moral vagaries of American behavior. As to benefits, there is no public evidence of any direct connection between blanket electronic sweeps or intelligence gathering at notorious detention centers and successes against terrorist groups, except possibly for the capture of Al-Qaeda operatives in Pakistan
DOMINANT/SUBORDINATE
Europe’s undue dependency on the United States points to the need for a self-conscious break from the past. To continue playing the roles of subaltern, appendix and acolyte to American might and magnetism can only stunt the former while feeding the hubris of the latter. Therein lies an unpromising future for all parties, including the world beyond the Atlantic axis.[5]  Sixty years ago, traumatized European leaders acted boldly and bravely to seek reliance on the
United States while moving to reorder their own affairs. Today, bravery in Europe’s enlightened interest is to begin curtailing that reliance.
Europe is inhibited by historical memory, by moral uncertainty and by political habit. In some critical respects, Europeans have freed themselves from the dead hand of the past. The postwar European community-building project was inspired to a large degree by the conviction that the continent’s collective history was the common enemy. It has succeeded admirably. Today’s politics has both benefited and been handicapped by that success. Gone are the overblown ambitions and lethal rivalries. European is at once post-modern and post-heroic.
Gone, too, are a sense of purpose and direction. Political will is another casualty.
The new Europe was made possible more by a process of political subtraction than political addition. That is to say, the domination of public affairs by prosaic concerns and tame ambitions has allowed Europeans to shed those parts of their make-up that would have impeded the process of integration.
National passion, ideological commitment, the impulse to draw lines of all kinds between “we” and “them” – they have dried up.
The civilian societies that have evolved, due in good part to this phenomenon, are also marked by a reduced sense of collective duty, aversion to danger, and an excessive introspection Members of these civilian societies have found it convenient to live under America’s protective umbrella and in America’s shadow – deferring to American judgments even when obviously flawed as they have been in the GWOT.
The need to make hard choices, to pronounce and to act are not felt as imperative when the United States, for better or worse, has been handling matters beyond Europe.
There is a touch of the Stockholm syndrome in this.[6] The United States is so controlling of the environment in which Europeans live and think that accommodation to American preferences and wants looks to be a seeming condition for meeting their own needs. This is especially true with regard to security matters –terrorism above all. Discernible features of the Stockholm syndrome are undue empathy with the mindset of the dominating party, a heightened sensitivity to what may arouse its hostility, acute awareness of one’s own vulnerability, eager readiness to “understand” why it is behaving in a controlling manner, and borrowing its vocabulary as necessary to communicate with it.  Convenience – intellectual, emotional, political – prevails.
 By contrast, the constant maneuvering to gain policy or mental space is more stressful than current leadership can bear. Yes, independence is attenuated. However, it often is easier just to take the framework provided by the United States as given. Strenuous efforts to fabricate one’s own against the current of American will and fashion are avoided. That many outside the United States – other governments, political elites, and intellectuals – are going with the current makes doubly difficult the task of asserting autonomy. The conviction must be strong that the struggle for autonomy is important enough to make the exertion in an attempt that may well prove unavailing.
As in the case of Middle East policy noted above, the stakes are indeed high, but neither the psychology nor the political logic is favorable to the West Europeans tacking away from Washington. The determination, implicit or explicit, of European leaders to yield to American leadership is made easier by bending over backwards to credit American interpretations and assessments – and goodwill. Buying into the American frame of mind in this way, of course, reinforces all the inertial elements that perpetuate the Stockholm Syndrome.
Hence, Europe and America have become enablers of each other’s dysfunctional behavior. American impulsive activism, domineering attitude and supreme self-confidence induce Europeans to indulge their penchant for passive deference.
Their lack of self-assertion and ever-readiness to give Washington the benefit of the doubt, in turn, encourages American leaders to treat them as subordinates.
That attitude is manifest in regard to electronic spying. It will continue to dictate American actions short of a retrieval of self-esteem by European leaders. A Europe that does not respect itself will not be respected by Washington.
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NOTES
1. The Washington Post November 12, 2005; Seymour Hersh The New Yorker, January 21 2005; Amnesty International “Below the Radar: Secret Flights to Torture and Disappearance” April 5, 2006.

2. Javier Solana “Testimony to the European Parliament Special Committee” May 3, 2006.  Solana, a conscientious public official and a man of rectitude, was forced into this fatuous performance by circumstances beyond his control, unless he dared take the brave action of resigning. After years of frustration trying to give body to CFSP and ESDP, an exercise tantamount to trying to make bricks without straw, Solana understandably was not about to butt his head against the unusual consensus albeit one arrayed in favor of a collective policy of denial. This behavior earned him scathing criticism from the Fava committee – fair or not.

3. Marty’s inquiry relied to a large extent on flights logs recorded by the European Union’s air traffic agency, Eurocontrol. The final report was issued in June 2006 as: “Alleged Secret Detentions and Unlawful Inter-State transfers of Detainees Involving Council of Europe Member States” (Strasbourg: Council of Europe). 
 
4. The buck passed to national chancelleries did not stop there. Incessant questioning in Berlin and London met with peevish responses. From the former came the one admission of an official being accessory to an illegal kidnapping. Otto Schily, Interior Minister in the preceding Schroeder Government, admitted that he had been aware of the seizure of German citizen Kalid al-Masri by the CIA after he had been lured to Skopje, Macedonia. 
 
5. A guardedly optimistic assessment of Europe’s latent capacity to assume an active world role that compensates for, while alleviating the excesses of American power is offered by TzvetanTodorov Désordre Mondial: Reflexions d’un Européen(Paris: L.G.F., 2005). It is a development that most of the world would welcome. 
 
6. I examine at length the psychological dimension of the Euro-American relationship in Toward A More Independent Europe EGMONT PAPER (Brussels: Royal Institute of International Relations, 2007) pp. 74

25 October 2013

Behind the Shutdown: The Lofgren Corollary


It is easy to look at the shutdown and the concomitant chaos in federal government as the product of incompetence and corruption.  But it was a deliberate effort by a vocal congressional minority from safe, cynically gerrymandered, congressional districts to sabotage the functioning of the entire federal government (including Defense in the short term).

One would think that a deliberate effort to turn the entire US government into an incompetent global laughing stock would be seen as an act of treason (and it certainly would have been if the effort was focused on the Pentagon), but to date, this has not been the case.  Yet as Bruce Barlett observes in the attached essay, there was indeed a systematic method to the destructive objectives of the government shutdown.  His critique is important, because Bartlett is no weepy effete liberal from the salons of the upper west side.  He is a long time card-carrying conservative Republican, having worked for Congressmen Ron Paul and Jack Kemp in Congress, before serving in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations. 

Bartlett argues the goals of the Republican radicals in Congress are (1) to wreck the domestic functions of the Federal Government as we know it and (2) mutate the federal government into some idealized vision of limited government front for the ubiquitous tentacles of an authoritarian national security state.  Borrowing from the work of my good friend Mike Lofgren (another lifelong Republican), Bartlett names this method the Lofgren Corollary to the definition of the Republican chutzpah: which is shorthand for the premeditated self-reinforcing strategy to intentionally sabotage government programs over the long term (except defense) by denying them the resources and stability to function efficiently, then attacking those programs when they do not work as advertised, thus justifying further strangulation, which creates more problems and confusion ...  and adds ammunition for further attacks.  In short the goal is to put the Federal Government (defense excepted) into what a fighter pilot would recognize as a dead man's spiral.

If Bartlett is correct, and I think he is, he ends by showing why those wishful thinking lefties who think Obama won the shut down debate should think again. To be sure, the shutdown artist have taken the bulk of the blame, but like the Taliban in 2001, they have a secure base from which to attack again, and the nature of the deal to re-open the government guarantees another crisis for these vanguards of totalitarianism to exploit.  To borrow from Winston Churchill (with a twist): the end of the shutdown is not the end, nor is it the beginning of the end ... and, given the destabilizing nature of continuing resolutions and public confusion over very basic bytes of information (for example 59% of the people think the deficit is increasing when in fact it is decreasing),  it is perhaps not even the end of the beginning. 

Chuck Spinney


Republicans and the “Lofgren Corollary

BRUCE BARTLETT
The Fiscal Times
October 25, 2013

Last week I explained that Congress has become an incompetent institution, unable to do its most basic work of passing annual appropriations bills to keep the government running. We usually think of incompetence as being the result of ineptness, stupidity or ignorance. But in the case of Congress, it is often intentional and deliberate, part of a long-term strategy by some Republicans to undermine government itself.
Former Republican congressional staffer Mike Lofgren first alerted me to this phenomenon two years ago in a widely discussed article, “Goodbye to All That: Reflections of a GOP Operative Who Left the Cult.” In it, he discussed the tactic of filibustering all legislation in the Senate and all nominations to administration positions, regardless of merit. In Lofgren’s words:
A couple of years ago, a Republican committee staff director told me candidly (and proudly) what the method was to all this obstruction and disruption. Should Republicans succeed in obstructing the Senate from doing its job, it would further lower Congress's generic favorability rating among the American people. By sabotaging the reputation of an institution of government, the party that is programmatically against government would come out the relative winner.

A deeply cynical tactic, to be sure, but a psychologically insightful one that plays on the weaknesses both of the voting public and the news media. There are tens of millions of low-information voters who hardly know which party controls which branch of government, let alone which party is pursuing a particular legislative tactic. These voters' confusion over who did what allows them to form the conclusion that "they are all crooks," and that "government is no good," further leading them to think, "a plague on both your houses" and "the parties are like two kids in a school yard." This ill-informed public cynicism, in its turn, further intensifies the long-term decline in public trust in government that has been taking place since the early 1960s - a distrust that has been stoked by Republican rhetoric at every turn ("Government is the problem," declared Ronald Reagan in 1980).


An ABC News/Washington Post poll out this week confirms that the strategy is working. ... [continued]


12 September 2013

Putin Lectures Obama


Who Benefits From America's State of Perpetual War?
by FRANKLIN C. SPINNEY, COUNTERPUNCH

That our Noble Peace Prize winning President and the Congress needed a rational lecture on the need for a little common sense in foreign policy, from a graduate of the KGB, says a lot about about the degraded nature of domestic politics in the United States.
Domestic politics do not end at the water’s edge, as the foreign policy elite would like us to believe. On the contrary, any nation’s foreign policy is always a reflection of its domestic politics. (see for example, Robert Dallek’s insightful history, The American Style of Foreign Policy: Cultural Politics and Foreign Affairs.) The political soap opera surrounding Obama’s quest to bomb Syria is a case in point. Two thirds of the American people opposed the war, yet elites have been debating how to ignore the will of the people. These domestic politics are the real subject of Putin’s lecture. Implicitly, his lecture is also about the democratic duty of American citizens to reign in the elites claiming falsely to be acting in their name.
Should a former KGB agent be giving advice to the people of a constitutional democracy?
Think about the pathway that ‘democracy’ has travelled on over the last twelve years: On September 11, 2001, the entire world was on the side of the United States. In fact one of the largest, if not the largest, of the world wide demonstrations in support of the United States was a mass vigil in Tehran, Iran — a country we promptly denounced as being part of an axis of evil. Twelve years later, America is increasingly isolated, its leadership elites having used 9-11 as a pretext to fabricate rationales for invading Afghanistan and Iraq and for bombing Libya, Yemen, Pakistan, and Somalia. Now Syria is in the crosshairs for reasons that are questionable, to put it charitably; and once again, the elites are fabricating stories to get their way.
America is in a state of perpetual war with large parts of the Muslim world. America is viewed by more and more people around the world, including some of its non-Muslim allies, as a self-righteous, narcissistic super power that believes its exceptional status gives it the right to bomb and bully anyone it deems to be a ‘threat’ to its interests or moral values.
Putin’s subliminal message may well be: Look, we ended the Cold War; now, at long last, is it not time for America to undergo a national introspection of its own and end its state of perpetual war, before it further destabilizes even larger swathes of the world?
Perhaps we, as the owners of our government, should be asking ourselves questions like –
How did our country land itself in a state of perpetual war?
Is our President, a man who excited the world, including Syria,* with promises to change in America’s behaviour, the cause of the problem evoking Putin’s lecture? Or is Mr. Obama merely a front man presiding over a deeper, more profound set of domestic political distortions? Is he a protector of an increasingly dysfunctional, distinctly un-American status quo domestic political apparat that benefits the richest one percent at the expense of the masses?
How and why did the American people allow their elites and political representatives — Republicans and Democrats alike — to exploit 9-11 in an arbitrary way to place our nation on a grotesque moral pathway into a shameful state of mismatches between the (1) values we profess to uphold and others expect us to uphold, (2) those values we actually hold dear as demonstrated by our actions, and (3) the conditions in the world we have to contend with?
But most importantly, with respect to domestic politics of America’s state of perpetual war, Cui Bono?
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* I was in Levantine, Syria in the summer of 2008, and the excitement on the street over Obama’s possible election and the promise it held for the Middle East was palpable and infectious.
Franklin “Chuck” Spinney is a former military analyst for the Pentagon and a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion, published by AK Press.